The regime in Iran on the brink. Strong signs indicate the regime will fall. We do not know when or how exctly.
The regime in Iran could be on the verge of its final collapse. The Memorandum of Understanding with the US officially expired on August 17, 2026. There are no tangible results. Inflation in the Middle Eastern country continues to run rampant. Its access to foreign currency has been cut off. It cannot export oil.
The nanny state in Iran is increasing its food subsidies for poorer families, yet the momentum of the downward spiral is dragging vast sections of the middle and lower classes in Iran into a maelstrom of worries about making ends meet. The US Navy is escorting tankers from the United Arab Emirates close to the coast of Oman through the Strait of Hormuz. However, tankers seeking to export Iranian oil, primarily to China, are unable to proceed.
Abdul Nasser Hemmati , Governor of the Central Bank of Iran, confirmed in a television interview that Iran’s oil exports are currently suspended. At the same time, he noted that the sums of money agreed in the MoU had not yet been released to the regime. In recent weeks, several high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic, citing the worsening economic hardship and cost-of-living crisis, have warned of a new wave of protests and announced their readiness to intervene.
The Basij militiamen’s greatest fear is being recognised and attacked in public. Some members of various security agencies of the regime have already been murdered. Here is a report from the province of Kurdistan. Here is a report from the province of Baluchistan. Recently, due to the economic situation, the Basij have been prepared for renewed street protests.
The signs point to a new surprise attack by the US and Israel on high-ranking regime officials, military installations and weapons systems in Iran; possibly in conjunction with large-scale protests or armed uprisings in the regions of Baluchistan, Kurdistan and, ultimately, throughout Iran.
Dogmatists or pragmatists?
Various power groups make up the ruling class within the regime in Iran. A rough simplification allows for a division into two camps. Dogmatic hardliners with apocalyptic convictions rely on chaos, violence, escalations of war and unconditional loyalty to their ideology.
Smooth-talking pragmatists, who are involved either in international diplomacy or in international economic networks, favour negotiations and are prepared to make concessions, if only to ensure the survival of a scaled-down version of the regime and to preserve their positions or their wealth. Among the dogmatic hardliners are men such as the son of the slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba, who is officially listed as the new Supreme Leader but has given no sign of life since the end of February.
Ali Khamenei’s former chief of staff, Deputy Foreign Minister, presidential candidate, nuclear negotiator and member of the National Security Council, Saeed Jalili. His supporter, the cleric Mohammad-Mehdi Mirbagheri, is widely regarded as the successor to the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi .
Mirbagheri has been a member of the Assembly of Experts since 2016. He also heads the Academy of Islamic Sciences in Qom, whose remit is to develop and promote ‘Islamic sciences’.
Alireza Arafi, a protégé of Ali Khamenei, was for many years one of the key figures in the internationalisation of the Islamic Republic’s agenda, as evidenced by his role as head of all seminaries in Iran and as vice-chancellor of Al-Mustafa University. He regards the Saudi form of Islam, Wahhabism, as the main enemy of Shia Islam.
Arafi’s work, however, was not limited to consolidating the political role of the regime-loyal clergy in Iran; it also encompassed the global dissemination of the regime’s ideological message. In March 2026, he was briefly touted as the Supreme Leader’s successor and was part of the three-member Transitional Council until Mojtaba was finally officially appointed.
The dogmatists also include founding figures of the Revolutionary Guards such as Ahmad Vahidi (head of IRGC), Mohsen Resaei , who was recently appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and Hassan Rahimpour Asghadi, a prominent theorist within the Iranian regime. His responsibilities include developing propaganda campaigns and promoting Islamic ideology at an international level.
As a strategist for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, he disseminates anti-Western and anti-Zionist narratives through major Iranian media outlets such as Fars News and Tasnim News. Furthermore, he is the author of books on psychological warfare and propaganda, which serve as foundational texts for Iran’s modern information operations.
Asghadi’s propaganda efforts are directed against the ‘enemies of Islam’, in particular the United States and Israel. He employs psychological warfare tactics to strengthen the Iranian regime’s position both domestically and internationally, frequently resorting to anti-Western rhetoric.
The regime’s pragmatists, known in the West for their roles in diplomatic or representative missions, include men such as the former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, the current Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the former President Mohammad Khatami and the current President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Will this regime survive?
If one listens to the propaganda in Iranian state media, it is clear that this regime has won the war against a heavily armed adversary and, according to Wahidi’s latest statements, ‘Islam’ has ensured the army’s combat readiness and shown the world that ‘Islam’ can rule the entire world.
Vahid Beheshti, an Iranian exile and opposition figure living in London, is a board member of the “Iran Front” organisation, which campaigns for the imminent transition from the rule of the Islamic Republic to a democratic and secular form of society. The website states: “Our task is to ensure that this transition takes place not in chaos, but under the protection of law, order and national unity.”
Vahid Beheshti explains why he believes the regime will by no means survive: “In my view, there are five strong reasons that clearly indicate this regime will not last much longer.
Neighbouring countries such as the United Arab Emirates were once major trading partners for the Islamic Republic. These countries are also dependent on external investors.
In recent months, they have come under fire from the Revolutionary Guards. It is not only American military bases that have been hit by Iranian missiles; drones and other projectiles have also struck energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. Whilst these neighbours do not want any further military escalation, they are also no longer willing to continue being blackmailed by this regime.”
Recent statements from within the regime’s ranks also contribute to this. The Islamic Republic is arguing that Arab states should not be permitted to build pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Hamidreza Haji Babaei, the regime’s second deputy speaker of parliament, warned on state television that pipelines bypassing Hormuz were just as dangerous to the Islamic Republic as missiles.
This clearly demonstrates how important the Strait remains for the regime’s regional influence.
By repeatedly using the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon, the Islamic Republic has given the states of the Persian Gulf every reason to build alternative routes that reduce their dependence on it. Haji Babaei also stated that anyone who cooperates with US sanctions is effectively ‘at war’ with the Islamic Republic.
Beheshti goes on to explain that the State of Israel sees its very existence threatened by the ideology of constant threats of annihilation and will not give up the historic opportunity to bring down the regime.
He adds: “In future, the US administration will focus more on strategic and financial partnerships in the Middle East. Furthermore, the new British Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has authorised the US military to carry out further operations from British bases. Other European countries have also been supporting targeted attacks on the regime since the NATO summit in Ankara.”
This statement is reflected, albeit in a rather vague manner, in the final declaration of the summit held on 7–8 July: “The European Allies and Canada are delivering on and taking on more responsibility for the defence of the Alliance. As part of the ongoing burden-sharing within the Alliance, massive increases in European defence spending have been agreed.”
The reference to Iran, however, becomes clear in point 5 of the summit declaration : “The Alliance continues to respond to and adapt to strategic competition, widespread instability, hybrid threats and recurring shocks that shape our overall security environment. The Allies reaffirm that Iran must never possess a nuclear weapon and call on Iran to fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Two further key aspects of Beheshti’s arguments cannot be dismissed: “The mood in the country is quite volatile, despite the massacres in January 2026. Many people are waiting for a favourable opportunity to rise up against the regime. And the regime fears that day. Added to this is the fact that the rift between the radical dogmatists and the more logical pragmatists is widening with every passing week. The ‘toughest sanctions ever’ announced by President Trump will further contribute to this.”
Economic pressure instead of bombs
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent reiterates this statement: “Any remaining link to Tehran will accelerate a nation’s economic collapse, regardless of whether that link is established intentionally or knowingly ignored.” Here, President Erdogan in particular has a duty to prevent Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards’ networks in Turkey from providing further aid to the regime in Iran.
The US Treasury Department has taken steps to ensure that the previous trade route via Dubai – which has been officially cut off by the UAE – is not replaced by Turkish-Lebanese networks. In the justification for the sanctions, the Turkish businessman Yunus Alper Yilmaz is named as the hub of a network of couriers responsible for transporting cash between other countries in the region and Hezbollah’s bases in Lebanon.
Yilmaz misuses certain currency exchange bureaux based in Turkey as fronts for his business activities and has shell companies and bank accounts at his disposal for money transfers linked to the Quds Force (the branch of the Revolutionary Guards responsible for expansion).
Yilmaz’s accomplices include the couriers Halil Ibrahim, Kacmaz and Onder Dede, who collect cash from the currency exchange bureaux, as well as Vasfi Akyuz, who coordinates logistics for the couriers and acts as a courier himself. Other couriers in the network include Mehmet Akyuz, Mehmet Acur, Feyyad Karasalih, Masoud Mousafar, Gulay Kaya Savci and Emrah Ayaz, who have covertly transported cash intended for Hezbollah on commercial flights to Lebanon.
The US will focus on economic warfare against the regime of the Islamic Republic. Bessent’s message carries the implication that whilst the war machine may fall silent, economic pressure does not. The strategy is to continuously tighten the financial noose around the regime.
The United States is combining its blockade with aggressive financial enforcement and secondary sanctions, which aim to force foreign banks, companies and governments to choose between access to the US economy and providing the Islamic Republic with a lifeline.
The Trump administration appears determined to bring this regime to its knees without risking military escalation.
Whether the abyss is deep enough to bring down the regime’s rapidly spreading global ideology at the same time is another matter. Man does not live by bread alone.
©Helmut N. Gabel for mehriran.de, 22.08.2026
