Carnage or hope, press conference on the current situation in Iran. Hosted by the International Organisation for Human Rights, Frankfurt. Moderated by Valerio Krüger.
Warnings went unheeded for decades
For decades, Germany and Europe have effectively swept problems with the Islamic Republic of Iran under the carpet. Change through trade has not brought about any change of heart among the regime’s ideologues. This has kept the hopes of the people of Iran for support low.
Warnings about the regime’s ideology and its spread to the West have been ignored.
Smuggling activities to smuggle refugees and with them Revolutionary Guards sleepers to the West have been supported by the Revolutionary Guards. Warnings about this have been ridiculed by politicians.
Warnings about the Revolutionary Guards‘ cyber army, which has been active since 2015 and that carries out hacker attacks as well as spreading ideological propaganda via the usual social media, have been dismissed.
Warnings about the Iranian regime’s non-negotiable urge to build nuclear weapons while producing ballistic missiles and flocks of drones have not been taken very seriously. Except by Israel, whose existence the regime in Iran has repeatedly and openly threatened. According to regime ideologues, the state labelled ‘little Satan’ should be wiped off the face of the earth as a major milestone.
But the ideology of Velayat-e faghi does not want to stop there. Dominance of the Muslim Ummah, then expansion of dominance under the leadership of the supreme jurist in Iran and the claim to act in the name of God over the entire world. Nothing less than that.
We could understand what people in Iran have been experiencing and suffering for 46 years if we Europeans seriously took the time to look beyond our navels or fantasise about hopeless theories. This agony of the people of Iran has to do with the regime’s ideology, which is based on the destruction of civilisation, messianic ideas and the undermining of Western societies and humanist values.
The façade of the regime appears republican, rational, striving for justice and seeking its place in the international order. But the core of the system has strong caliphate traits: an ideologically firm group gathers around a supreme leader, believes itself to be God’s representative on earth and pulls the strings from behind the scenes, takes all strategically relevant decisions on politics, society and finance, spreads fear and terror, wants obedient people, ruins the economy, stirs up international discord and hatred. The latest fatwas issued by the Ayatollahs Hamedani and Shirazi are eloquent testimony to this.
Death fatwas and other evils by the regime in Iran
Façade figures such as the former foreign minister Zarif or the US-based academic Vali Nasr, who was recently allowed to throw out a lifeline to the regime in Der Spiegel, never tire of defending the regime with finely turned words and highly placed contacts in the West.
Meanwhile, the Revolutionary Guards have had time to expand their sphere of influence via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to the ideologically cooperating Hezbollah, including through arms deliveries, fighter training and operational bases in these countries, to support Hamas in Gaza, to strengthen the Houthis in Yemen and to cooperate and interfere in some African and South American countries through economic, military and ideological cooperation.
Hope
Since October 2023, Israel has bloodily but successfully pushed back these proxy armies and is now in control of the airspace over Iran, has killed some of the highest revolutionary officials and may be preparing further strikes.
More than 80% of the population is in favour of overthrowing the regime. The Velayat-e faghi system has run its course. Yet, Europe still seems to cling to its doctrine of ‘change through trade’ and appeasement through recognition and talks. This must finally stop. People in Iran deserve maximum support so that they can build an Iran that puts a stop to the currently rapidly increasing conflict behaviour of some interest groups.
This requires what Roderich Kiesewetter (German CDU politician) is already calling for in part:
1. a clear EU strategy towards the regime in Iran
2. a clear commitment to the opposition through joint public events. The umbrella organisation Iran Front is campaigning for an orderly transition from the current system to a free future by means of a referendum under international supervision, and is knocking on doors at the EU and in national governments.
3. finally put the Revolutionary Guards on the terror list
4. recognise the value of decisive action through Israel’s precise strikes on the regime’s facilities and leaders in Iran
5. expel and stop the propaganda cells in the regime’s Western embassies that are designed to undermine the West
6. no unchecked and no AI-checked takeovers of press releases from Iranian state propaganda organisations such as IRIB (2010, Zarghami visits ZDF and ARD)
That would be maximum pressure on the regime and maximum support for the people of Iran, who are longing for a new beginning based on individual dignity, solidarity and national sovereignty. Any hesitation and procrastination will result in another bloodbath. Europe should not shoulder any more guilt. Hope for the people of Iran, hope for peace, need a strong response.
German version: https://mehriran.de/blutbad-oder-hoffnung-pressegespraech-zu-iran-30-06-25/
©Helmut N. Gabel, mehriran.de 2025
