Blow by blow. Israeli and American bombing of mobile and fixed military installations and personnel of the Revolutionary Guards, Basij and secret police has continued uninterrupted for twelve days. Why consistently supporting the people of Iran in finally ousting the regime from power will be a victory for humanity.
For Switzerland, too. Contrary to all the fears being stirred up by some media outlets, contrary to all the doubts being spread by selected ‘experts’ in the West, contrary to all the rejection and hate attacks at demonstrations against the people who, after 47 years, are taking responsibility to end the nightmare of an Islamist experiment in the Middle East.
For many years, activists linked to Iran have been describing why the Iranian regime is not a state in the usual sense of the term, what ideology and objectives it pursues, how the Iranian people are oppressed, tyrannised and massacred, and how the West is attempting to exert a moderating influence through negotiations and discussions with those responsible for the regime.
This doctrine has failed miserably, as the regime has used the talks to lull the West into a false sense of security in order to gain time. During this time, oil and gas revenues have not been used to build a prosperous society in Iran, but to build up regional accomplices militarily, financially and ideologically. Since the attack on Israel by one of the regime’s allies in Iran, Hamas, on 7 October 2023, the influence of the terror-exporting state has been gradually pushed back.
The circumstances surrounding this pushback are painful and traumatic, yet they inspire hope for the people of Iran who long for dignity, freedom, self-determination and peace. Since the United States and Israel began working together on 28 February 2026 to systematically destroy the regime’s military facilities and eliminate those responsible for the Revolutionary Guards, hopes for the fall of the regime continue to grow. A friend recently wrote from Iran: ‘Bombs are raining down from the sky, which is certainly shocking, but we are not trembling with fear. Rather, we fear the regime. Don’t stop the bombing – please don’t leave us alone with these monsters.’
An irritating statement for people living in the West – at first. It becomes understandable when one makes the effort in the West to engage with 47 years of the regime’s ideology and social realities on the ground and talks to people in Iran who have not been caught up in the propaganda narratives of the ideologues or are afraid of persecution.
Blow by blow: System of exploitation
Jean-Marie Montali writes in the Nouvelle Revue Politique: „The Islamic Republic of Iran should actually be guided by religious and revolutionary principles, to which strict and pious men submit, who reject excessive wealth and conspicuous luxury. In reality, however, a small elite has seized power and a large part of the country’s wealth.
This elite functions like a closed caste: the same families occupy key positions in politics, security and the economy, control wealthy religious foundations, place their relatives in important positions and their money… in Europe. The privileges they denounced yesterday have now become their own. Their logic is no longer that of a revolution or a republic with Islamic purity.
It is a system of exploitation and preservation of illicitly acquired goods. They control the money, enforce a strict hierarchy in which lack of loyalty can be punished by death, and use intimidation, oppression and murder to silence opponents and preserve power and its benefits. It is a mafia-like system.“
Blow by blow: Mojtaba successor of his father?
According to an official statement from the regime, the 88-member Council of Experts has designated the son of the slain Supreme Leader as his successor. However, he has not yet appeared in public, which has led to much speculation. Some reports have already announced his death, others have seen him as seriously wounded, and some speculate that he is not showing himself in order to avoid harm from anything or anyone. Most recently, Iranian state television confirmed that Mojtaba was seriously injured in an Israeli attack.
Mojtaba Khamenei had already headed the so-called Beit, Khamenei’s ‘house’, the close circle of relatives and associates who worked closely with him. In other words, he maintained contacts behind the scenes with individuals who always acted outside the law and with guaranteed impunity in order to protect the system and its Supreme Leader.
He is named in intelligence documents as the main person responsible for the bloody suppression of protests and demonstrations. For the people of Iran who are striving for freedom, such news is a balm, as they see one pillar of the system after another collapsing or being weakened.
Blow by blow: The mosaic doctrine
Mojtaba has not yet addressed the armed forces, which he commands according to the constitution. He has not confirmed the 33 missile and drone attacks carried out in his name. The Revolutionary Guards wrote ‘At your service, Sayed Mojtaba’ on the warheads of the 33rd wave of attacks. The man they serve has not confirmed that he received the message.
The only image of Mojtaba Khamenei that has been circulating since his appointment is a pre-prepared portrait. No photos. No videos. No audio recordings. A portrait and a title (Jânbaz of Ramadan = someone who risks his life/hero of the fasting period). This term was used for invalids after the Iraq-Iran war.
According to Article 110 of the Iranian Constitution, the Supreme Leader has sole command of all armed forces. He appoints and dismisses every military commander. No other institution can issue or revoke military orders. The 31 autonomous provincial commands of the Revolutionary Guards operate according to orders delegated in advance by his predecessor.
Only a functioning Supreme Leader can override these orders. The functioning Supreme Leader is a portrait on a wall, a title in a radio address, and a word that means he was injured by the bombs that were meant to kill him. The mosaic doctrine was developed to survive decapitation. It was activated because the Supreme Leader was killed. It continues to exist because his successor is not functional. Every day that Mojtaba remains silent, the 31 commands act more and more autonomously.
Every day, the portrait replaces the person, and the constitutional mechanism that could centralise command remains frozen. Every day that the title ‘jânbaz’ remains, the regime confirms without confirmation that the man at the head of Iran’s entire military and political system has been hit and has not recovered. The Guards do not need Mojtaba to command. They need him to exist. The election must have been a farce; it violated the constitution, yet another measure to preserve the system at all costs.
Blow by blow: Ready for a new chapter
Roxanna Saberi, an American journalist, was held hostage in Iran for more than a hundred days. She has written a book about this time. Today she received a message from a woman in Iran, which she has made public: „We, the Iranian people: we can feel relief at the death of a dictator and at the same time mourn the children of Minab, innocent people and grieving families.
We can draw hope from the collapse of oppression and the idea of freedom and at the same time fear missiles flying over our heads. This is not a contradiction – it means being human. We can yearn for freedom, fear war, hope for change and at the same time mourn the people who always pay the first and highest price.“
Vahid Beheshti has been camping outside the British Foreign Office in London for three years to demand that the Guardians be listed. He is interviewed repeatedly about Iran. Most recently, he sounded confident: „The fall of the Islamic Republic is not only in Israel’s interest. It is not only in Iran’s interest. It is in the interest of every nation that has ever believed in sovereignty, security and the right to exist without a declared ideological enemy plotting against it.
The demise of the regime in Iran will strengthen the security of the West, restore deterrence and eliminate a central driver of regional chaos. The Iranian people are ready for a new chapter – they have been ready for decades.“
@Helmut N. Gabel, mehriran.de, 2026
